The Last Bear Standing. I came across your twitter a little over a year ago form a friend and have been a avid reader since. I'm so grateful for these write ups, keep up the great work.
Thank you so much! I cannot tell you how much I appreciate reading a nuanced take on Tether. The "Tether is bust and is going to decimate the crypto markets next week" articles are a dime a dozen. I'm no fan of Tether, I don't think it's fully backed and in my ideal world crypto would slowly move away from Tether and it would fade into non-existence. And yet, it has been standing the test of time for quite a while. There is clearly more "there there" than many people give it credit for.
Also, one thing with Tether is that it's the world's biggest open secret that it's a shady operation. If Tether blows, any bag holders left holding USDT, well I wouldn't really feel sorry for them. As compared to people on FTX, that's just an unfortunate tragedy.
I think the crypto world is indeed moving away from Tether already, even if it is a gradual process. There is a clearly a risk preference for USDC and BUSD over Tether - when Tether trades below par, the others trade above - and the have gained a substantial market share in the past year. Tether is still the gorilla, but it’s not the only show in town anymore.
Thanks for the nuanced article! It heartens me to see traders switch to USDC. I do indeed have my fingers crossed for a gradual fading out of Tether, rather than a blowup. As Doomberg says, We shall see
Masterful summary! My take is that Tether is being forced - against its will - to disclose and HAS improved their underlying asset base to less risky instruments.
HOWEVER, Tether remains essentially an opaque CRIMINAL enterprise and remains substantially unbacked. Tether DOES mint unbacked Tethers to boost prices in sporadic bursts.
The gut feeling is that Tether has multiple, siloed and discrete connections to International Organised Crime IOC which it regularly taps for ‘just in time’ funding. Why would IOC do this? Well, IOC has never found a better conduit than crypto for movement of their ill gotten gains. No more dealing with shady banks who take a sizeable haircut. As long as IOC sees Tether as an ‘honest broker’ (!) this support will continue.
Yet in the end, the web always gets more tangled than the various players can handle, then it all comes flooding out. Cf the Banco Ambrosiano scandal involving the Vatican Bank and mysterious deaths or murders. BTW Lugano Switzerland is an important social hub for these people. See their hilarious Plan B.
While I certainly can’t confirm whether there is any connection to organized crime, it is true that tether has been used throughout the world as a way to circumvent capital controls, particularly in Asia, and countries under US sanction. Crypto is obviously also the tender of choice for cyber crime groups. This is of course one of the primary motivation behind the belated rush to regulate and bring AML/OFAC/KYC enforcement actions.
Master TLBS, thanks for your write ups!!
If you keep reading, I keep writing, that's the deal! Thanks again!
The Last Bear Standing. I came across your twitter a little over a year ago form a friend and have been a avid reader since. I'm so grateful for these write ups, keep up the great work.
Thanks Yunus! I'm glad you appreciate, and thank you to your friend for putting you on
Thank you so much! I cannot tell you how much I appreciate reading a nuanced take on Tether. The "Tether is bust and is going to decimate the crypto markets next week" articles are a dime a dozen. I'm no fan of Tether, I don't think it's fully backed and in my ideal world crypto would slowly move away from Tether and it would fade into non-existence. And yet, it has been standing the test of time for quite a while. There is clearly more "there there" than many people give it credit for.
Also, one thing with Tether is that it's the world's biggest open secret that it's a shady operation. If Tether blows, any bag holders left holding USDT, well I wouldn't really feel sorry for them. As compared to people on FTX, that's just an unfortunate tragedy.
Anyways, thanks for the fantastic article.
I think the crypto world is indeed moving away from Tether already, even if it is a gradual process. There is a clearly a risk preference for USDC and BUSD over Tether - when Tether trades below par, the others trade above - and the have gained a substantial market share in the past year. Tether is still the gorilla, but it’s not the only show in town anymore.
Thanks for the positive feedback!
Thanks for the nuanced article! It heartens me to see traders switch to USDC. I do indeed have my fingers crossed for a gradual fading out of Tether, rather than a blowup. As Doomberg says, We shall see
Masterful summary! My take is that Tether is being forced - against its will - to disclose and HAS improved their underlying asset base to less risky instruments.
HOWEVER, Tether remains essentially an opaque CRIMINAL enterprise and remains substantially unbacked. Tether DOES mint unbacked Tethers to boost prices in sporadic bursts.
The gut feeling is that Tether has multiple, siloed and discrete connections to International Organised Crime IOC which it regularly taps for ‘just in time’ funding. Why would IOC do this? Well, IOC has never found a better conduit than crypto for movement of their ill gotten gains. No more dealing with shady banks who take a sizeable haircut. As long as IOC sees Tether as an ‘honest broker’ (!) this support will continue.
Yet in the end, the web always gets more tangled than the various players can handle, then it all comes flooding out. Cf the Banco Ambrosiano scandal involving the Vatican Bank and mysterious deaths or murders. BTW Lugano Switzerland is an important social hub for these people. See their hilarious Plan B.
While I certainly can’t confirm whether there is any connection to organized crime, it is true that tether has been used throughout the world as a way to circumvent capital controls, particularly in Asia, and countries under US sanction. Crypto is obviously also the tender of choice for cyber crime groups. This is of course one of the primary motivation behind the belated rush to regulate and bring AML/OFAC/KYC enforcement actions.
What do you mean by "See their hilarious Plan B." ?
I have a feeling that Lugano is center for Alb. . Or is it more multinational ?
Amazing content. Thank you
Thanks for reading Tim
Absolutely loving your content, would you be open to allowing us to share it with our 60k + audience as well?
Please feel free!
Thanks for getting back :) Just so I'm clear on some details, where would be best to contact you?
thelastbearstanding@gmail.com