I think you provide a lot of well-reasoned insight and deep reporting, which isn’t easy for readers to come by. You’re an informed, rational voice. Economic predictions are never all spot on. Looking forward to your 2024 outlook.
Next To Last Bear...I don't think you should change your moniker just yet. When that clown, Jerome, goes from 'we're not even talking about rate cuts' to 'just a question of how many rate cuts' over the course of about 13 days, something has been left out of the refrigerator too long. There are two possibilities: 1) These buffoons at the FED have no idea what they're doing (NOT a possibility really)
2) They're seeing the whites of somethings eyes. Quite a few bogeys under item 2.
Curiously, Mexican rail traffic went off a cliff in the first week of December compared to 2022. Negative across EVERY SINGLE CATEGORY. I'm not suggesting that means anything, but it is interesting. Also interesting is that your old friend, the BTFP, is STILL growing. I wonder if we are getting to the point where each bank is afraid of the other bank's toxic waste. Interesting Times.
Glorfindel, apologies my friend on the delayed response. I think that you will find this week's post interesting though you may disagree with the conclusions!
Perhaps my perspective has been skewed by price action, or by the long, ardous journey of a bear over the past several years. Or maybe I have finally moved to the right side of history. Time will tell.
The return on investment on this substack has been substantial. And for that, I thank you.
Thank you! I'm glad to hear that has been the case.
I think you provide a lot of well-reasoned insight and deep reporting, which isn’t easy for readers to come by. You’re an informed, rational voice. Economic predictions are never all spot on. Looking forward to your 2024 outlook.
Thanks for the kind words Brian, and glad you've found the writing useful.
Thank you so much for this Mr. Bear, a pleasure to read as always! This time with hot chocolate and churros! ;)
Next To Last Bear...I don't think you should change your moniker just yet. When that clown, Jerome, goes from 'we're not even talking about rate cuts' to 'just a question of how many rate cuts' over the course of about 13 days, something has been left out of the refrigerator too long. There are two possibilities: 1) These buffoons at the FED have no idea what they're doing (NOT a possibility really)
2) They're seeing the whites of somethings eyes. Quite a few bogeys under item 2.
Curiously, Mexican rail traffic went off a cliff in the first week of December compared to 2022. Negative across EVERY SINGLE CATEGORY. I'm not suggesting that means anything, but it is interesting. Also interesting is that your old friend, the BTFP, is STILL growing. I wonder if we are getting to the point where each bank is afraid of the other bank's toxic waste. Interesting Times.
Glorfindel, apologies my friend on the delayed response. I think that you will find this week's post interesting though you may disagree with the conclusions!
Perhaps my perspective has been skewed by price action, or by the long, ardous journey of a bear over the past several years. Or maybe I have finally moved to the right side of history. Time will tell.