The Last Bear Standing

The Last Bear Standing

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The Last Bear Standing
The Last Bear Standing
The Bettor's Market
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The Bettor's Market

#114: Pricing the Kamala Arb, and a wild week in markets.

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The Last Bear Standing
Jul 26, 2024
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The Last Bear Standing
The Last Bear Standing
The Bettor's Market
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A cover photo illustrating the convergence of sports betting, stock market speculation, and political betting in a less flashy, more subdued style. The background features a simplified stock market chart with subtle fluctuating lines and candlesticks. In the foreground, smaller icons of various sports like football, basketball, and horse racing, along with a discreet betting slip or odds. Overlaid stock tickers and symbols showing significant companies, with minimal call options and derivatives symbols. Symbols for major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum with subtle digital wallet transaction lines. An image of a voting ballot or election booth, subtly indicating prediction markets with a small, understated chart showing probabilities. Central focus on simplified dice, poker chips, and fanned playing cards representing gambling. Subdued color scheme with muted greens, blues, and reds, creating a cohesive and less flashy image.

Bettor’s Market

For better or worse, over the past several years — I’ll call it five — Americans have found a lust for gambling. In search of a thrill and a buck, we have embraced zero sum games with binary outcomes. The faster the action, the better.

Since May 2018, when the Supreme Court struck down the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA), which had effectively outlawed sports betting outside of Nevada, our entire sporting culture has been transformed. Just a few years ago, even passing mentions of betting odds or game lines on network sports were verboten. Today, pundits make pregame picks as live-betting odds slide across the crawler. The total volume of legal sports bets in the U.S. has grown from $4.6 billion in 2018 to $121.1 billion in 20231, as 34 states now condone the practice.

Source: SportsHandle.com, Note, June 2024 data is incomplete.

No surprise, the deluge of commercials for sportsbooks offering $1,000 of “free bets” has slowly given way to PSAs with gambling help hotlines. Always bet responsibly!

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