Somebody beat me to it, but housing prices won’t markedly drop unless labor market cracks. If you currently own a home paying 3% on your mortgage, you are not moving and replacing that with a 6% mortgage unless you are forced to if you lose your job. A beer on housing is really a bet on whether the Fed can engineer a soft landing. The e…
Somebody beat me to it, but housing prices won’t markedly drop unless labor market cracks. If you currently own a home paying 3% on your mortgage, you are not moving and replacing that with a 6% mortgage unless you are forced to if you lose your job. A beer on housing is really a bet on whether the Fed can engineer a soft landing. The equity and bond markets currently believe so, but I’m not so sanguine.
Though I would note that that housing prices have already markedly dropped. Sales volumes have totally collapsed and the entire west coast has seen >5% drops in the course of just 6 months which is a huge move for real estates prices. This has happened with a 3.5% unemployment rate. If unemployment rises from here, I agree this accelerates to the downside.
Somebody beat me to it, but housing prices won’t markedly drop unless labor market cracks. If you currently own a home paying 3% on your mortgage, you are not moving and replacing that with a 6% mortgage unless you are forced to if you lose your job. A beer on housing is really a bet on whether the Fed can engineer a soft landing. The equity and bond markets currently believe so, but I’m not so sanguine.
Though I would note that that housing prices have already markedly dropped. Sales volumes have totally collapsed and the entire west coast has seen >5% drops in the course of just 6 months which is a huge move for real estates prices. This has happened with a 3.5% unemployment rate. If unemployment rises from here, I agree this accelerates to the downside.